It was eight weeks prior when Morgan Rogers was standing on the Stadium of Light pitch, appearing bewildered as his coach berated him over not reading a through-ball. Back then, with the team endured a six-game winless run, the question was whether Rogers' form were a sign or the reason of the team's broader struggles.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
On Sunday, in contrast, the sideline response was much more joyous. After the in-form star swept in his second to reclaim Villa's lead, the boss discarded his coat, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. The team continued to a tenth straight victory and having failed to win their initial half-dozen games, are somehow only three points adrift of table-toppers Arsenal.
Are They Serious Title Contenders?
That’s a rather hard query to answer. The historical record, the perceived status of the club, argues against it. Additionally, their performances haven't been wholly dominant during this run, even as the victories have accumulated.
According to the data, on just two occasions has the team posted an xG notably superior than their opponents. For a side who have put together 10 in a row, they appear curiously susceptible – but at the moment the tight outcomes are falling their way.
The Reliant Strategy
The current approach appears to be to engage in a shootout with an opponent and wait for Rogers to bail them out with two crisp finishes. This occurred against Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and once more when facing Manchester United.
Rogers' first goal came from a brilliant finish, curled just inside the upright from the corner of the box. The follow-up goal proved to be a slight scruffier version of the opener capitalizing on a setup by his strike partner.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Common sense dictates no. Against United, the opponents registered more efforts and more efforts on goal. The team has triumphed in eight consecutive games by just one goal. They have allowed goals in all but one of those games.
Regression to the mean could be the most significant challenge the club will encounter over the coming weeks. Rogers, surely, will not continue to drilling his shots past despairing goalkeepers indefinitely.
Potential for Growth
Could it be another reality where, instead of luck running out, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures could still find their top level.
- The main striker could start finding the net regularly.
- Jadon Sancho may rediscover the force he showed in Germany.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are due to regain fitness, strengthening a sometimes shaky backline.
Maybe within that lies the potential of a genuine bid, however, it is improbable can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.
Relishing the Unlikely
Yet, this is a surprise. Few believed Villa would sit third at Christmas. And most definitely back in October, few could imagine the midfielder now would be spearheading a title charge while looking like an essential player for the national team.
The current run is to be savoured precisely because it seems so surreal. When Rogers positioned himself before the Villa faithful at the final whistle conducting the cheers, it was clear to be loving the experience. As he deserves to. These runs of form are rare in football and should be relished.
